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World Test Championship: Can India Win?

The current World Test Championship cycle (2021-23) began in August 2021 when India toured England last year. The series was suspended after four matches, with India leading 2-1. India are currently playing the last match of that series.

After three days, the match has tilted in India’s favour. In all likelihood, India will go on to win the match, if the weather gods permit. Assuming that India do win, where will that leave them on the WTC points table? (The team with the highest percentage of points will top the table.)

Current Standings

TeamPlayedWonLostDrawnPointsPercentage
Australia96038477.78
South Africa75206071.43
India116327758.33
Pakistan73224452.38
West Indies94325450.00
Sri Lanka73314047.62
England154745228.89
New Zealand92612825.93
Bangladesh101811613.33

The current standings suggest that India are badly off, with both Australia and South Africa ahead of them. India would want to finish among the top two. That would give them a shot at the title that eluded them in 2021. Can they?

Best Case Scenario for India

After the current ongoing match versus England, India will have 5 matches left to play.  These include 3 matches at home versus Australia and 2 away versus Bangladesh. It is not unreasonable to assume that India will win all of these games.

That would earn them 72 additional points. They would then finish with an aggregate of 149 points that would translate into 77.70% of possible points won. Even if India lost a match to Australia, they would finish with 137 points or 71.35%.

World Test Championship India

Best Case Scenario for Australia

Australia have 9 matches to go, including the 2nd test versus Sri Lanka due to begin on 5 July. We can reasonably expect the Aussies to win the second match versus Sri Lanka. I predict that Australia will beat West Indies 2-0 and South Africa 3-0, in their remaining home series.

That will leave them 3 matches away in India. Assuming that they lose all of those, Australia will finish with an aggregate of 156 points. Additionally assuming that Australia lose 2 of their 6 other matches, they will still finish with 132 points or 68.75%.

Best Case Scenario for South Africa

South Africa have eight matches left to play. These include 2 home games versus West Indies, and 3 each away to Australia and England. For the Proteas to have any hopes of qualifying for the WTC final, they would have to win 6. That would tie them on 132 points with Australia while giving them a better percentage (73.33).

In other words, they would have to lose no more than 2 of their remaining matches. Is that possible? Yes! Is it likely? No! Why do I think so? First, the good news: I believe that South Africa will beat West Indies 2-0 at home. Now for the bad news: equally, I believe that Australia will win all three of their remaining matches versus South Africa. Playing England in England will not be easy.

South Africa would be lucky to escape without one or more losses from their 3 matches there. So, in all probability, South Africa will lose at least 3 of their remaining 8 matches. Assuming that they win the remaining 5, they will finish with 120 points, translating into 66.67% of points won.

Conclusion

I believe that India will top the group and meet Australia in the WTC final in 2024.

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Raj
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Raj was born and raised in Nagpur, Rajesh moved to Pune to pursue a degree in the English Language at Savitribai Phule Pune University. Having a knack for writing from a very young age, he naturally excelled in his studies and decided to dip his toes in content editing, as well. Now, a full-time Editor, he enjoys spending his free time watching IPL and badminton matches and writing his first novel. His favourite sport is cricket and he believes cricket is life. But I’ve always dreamed of becoming a professional badminton player, so badminton is also at the top of my list. His biggest win is Saina Nehwal’s bronze at the 2016 Olympics landed him a brand new laptop after his bet on the winning margin came through. His biggest goal is meeting Saina Nehwal and telling her about his biggest win.