Manchester City near Champions League spot

When a title race wraps up early, the final weeks of a league season often fizzle out into a series of meaningless fixtures. But not this year. The English Premier League (EPL) is alive with drama, as clubs scramble for their slice of the lucrative UEFA Champions League pie. Missing out? That’s a nightmare no ambitious club wants to face.

Pep Guardiola and Phil Foden for Manchester City (PC: Manchester City/X)

Take Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur, for example. Whichever side triumphs in tonight’s Europa League final in Bilbao will pocket around £32 million. But the real prize? The coveted Champions League spot that comes with it. To put it in perspective, Lille’s run to the last 16 of the Champions League earned them a staggering £67.63 million. For clubs teetering on the edge of financial sustainability, that’s life-changing money.

Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest have been revelations this season, punching above their weight and ruffling the feathers of EPL giants. But both are walking a tightrope when it comes to the Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR). Newcastle United and Chelsea, too, could face tough questions if they fail to secure a top-five finish. The stakes couldn’t be higher.

Liverpool, the runaway champions, and Arsenal, sitting comfortably on 71 points, have already booked their Champions League tickets. Manchester City’s 3-1 victory over Bournemouth on Tuesday night pushed them to 68 points. With their superior goal difference, even a draw at Fulham on Sunday will seal their spot. But Fulham, who stunned Liverpool 3-2 last month, won’t make it easy.

Newcastle United, with 12 wins from 18 home games this season, are in pole position. Facing an Everton side with nothing left to play for, the Magpies are poised to add Champions League qualification to their Carabao Cup triumph. Only City and Liverpool have scored more home goals than Newcastle’s 40 this season. Barring a miracle, St James’ Park will be rocking with Champions League dreams come Sunday.

The final round’s marquee clash is at the City Ground, where Nottingham Forest will host Chelsea. Forest’s form has dipped in recent months, but Chelsea’s woeful away record—7 wins, 7 losses, and 4 draws—offers hope. With Chris Wood back in action and a roaring home crowd behind them, an upset isn’t out of the question. For Chelsea, another Champions League blow could spell disaster for Todd Boehly’s ambitious project.

Then there’s Aston Villa, the dark horses of the season. Four wins in their last five matches have put them level on points with Chelsea and Newcastle. A trip to Old Trafford awaits, where Manchester United have managed just six wins in 18 matches. But much could depend on the Europa League final’s outcome. Will Villa face a rejuvenated United or a demoralized side still reeling from a disappointing campaign?

Unai Emery will undoubtedly urge his players to treat Sunday’s clash as a final. And given their impressive wins over Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich this season, it’s hard to bet against them.