In this article on EPL betting tips, we will give you all the tools needed to beat the bookmakers. Especially, what to look out for before you start betting on the Premier League. We would like to inform our readers that we have a page dedicated to the best EPL betting sites. In compiling our EPL betting tips, we analyse various things a punter should know before and during the season.
The best football league in the World, perfect for the bettor who likes intriguing matchups and plenty of interesting results. We will be pointing out things to consider during the season, what to focus on when betting on season-long bet tips, and give betting tips on miscellaneous aspects not covered earlier. Additionally, we will dwell on live betting tips and give you answers to frequently asked questions when it comes to our EPL betting tips.
What to Look Out for Before Starting Betting on the EPL
So, what should you look out for before you start betting on the English Premier League? We will cover that in the following sections of our EPL betting tips review. In teaching how to bet on EPL games, we look at certain dos and don’ts devised to optimise the experience.
Before the Season Starts
There are various things that punters should be aware of before the season starts. We cover these aspects in this part of our EPL betting tips. These include transfers, change of managers, and pre-season friendlies that can indicate the form of players and teams.
Transfers
Transfers can play a major role in decisions relating to betting on EPL. How do you assess how a team like Crystal Palace stands ahead of the season? Is Chelsea a title contender for the upcoming season? Did Crystal Palace, for instance, lose their most important player before the season? Sometimes it can be hard to assess who is a pivotal player on a team, and who isn’t.
For instance, Liverpool had to sell their best player, Philippe Coutinho, during the 2017-18 season. Most fans probably didn’t expect to find Liverpool in the Champions League final later that season. In reality, Coutinho’s departure reduced the team’s reliance on an attack built around Coutinho.
Instead, they could progress the ball through the middle, making better use of their talented wingers, Sadio Mané and Mo Salah. Additionally, they were able to spend money on a pressing need, their defence. That was made possible by their receipt of the third biggest transfer fee ever, obtained from the sale of Coutinho. In the bargain, they ended up buying Virgil van Dijk, who is, to this day, arguably one of the best defenders in the EPL.
Ahead of the 2024-23 season, most of the top clubs appear to have addressed most of their needs. It will especially be interesting to see how the sale of Sadio Mané and the purchase of Darwin Núñez will impact Liverpool this season.
Change of Managers
In this segment of our Premier League betting tips, we consider how a managerial change can impact a club’s performance. At times, the impact can take time to come to light, as when Jürgen Klopp became manager at Liverpool. On other occasions, the impact could be felt almost immediately, as when Conte became manager, mid-season last year, at Tottenham.
One manager who could have a great impact on his club this season is Erik ten Hag at Manchester United. Don’t be surprised if United take some strides forward this season, even though they have a tough start to the season.
Pre-Season Friendlies
Pre-season friendlies can indicate what to expect in the upcoming season. In this part of our Premier League tips, we consider what lessons can be learned from preseason games. They may perhaps throw light not so much on whether a certain team will do well. Rather, they may indicate whether some players might break through in the upcoming season.
Especially, if there are newly acquired players or talents looking to get their breakthrough on the first team. Gabriel Jesus looked very good in Arsenal’s pre-season friendlies, so don’t be surprised if he has a very good season coming up.
Additionally, you should look out for whether new formations are being tested out. For instance, is one club moving from a 4-4-2 to 3-5-2 for the upcoming season? If so, we might see some players perform very differently from the way they did in the previous season.
During the Season: Keep Yourself Updated on the Right Stats
Our EPL tips would be incomplete without discussing stats. Stats form an important part of betting on any sports, as indeed for football as well. Be aware of what stats to monitor when you bet on the EPL. Of course, the type of stats you need can depend on what kind of bets you want to make. We dedicate this segment of our EPL betting tips to elaborating on the appropriate bet types and the important stats.
What Is xG – Expected Goals
Before we move on with our EPL betting tips, however, we would like to explain what is xG in football. Expected goals represent an important stat that we will be using a lot in this article. xG is the short name for expected goals, a data model used to analyse the probability of a player scoring from a given shot attempt.
xG helps to measure the quality of a chance. In other words, it measures the likelihood that a shot from a particular position will result in a goal. It is measured on a scale between 0 and 1. For instance, if a player’s xG is 0.18, it implies that he will score one goal for every five shots he takes. However, xG is a much-misunderstood term.
To measure xG, various factors are considered. These include the distance of the shooter to the goal, and the angle of the shot. The measure also considers whether it was a one-or-one situation, the body part used, the type of assist, and the pattern of play.
Punters can use xG to compare the form of players by measuring which one is more likely to score in a given situation. Similarly, punters can use the measure to compare the form of teams. Punters must understand that xG only measures probability, and not the outcome of a game. It can also help explain how unlikely a goal scored would normally be.
A related measure is xA (expected assist). The expected assist (xA) measures the chance of a pass becoming an assist (transpiring into a goal). Thus, xA helps assess a player’s creative output. To measure xA, many factors are considered. How is the finisher positioned? How fast is the through ball? What kind of pass is it?
Season Long Bets Tips
| Types of Bets | EPL Betting Tips: Important Stats and Insights |
|---|---|
| Outright Winner of the EPL | Transfers |
| Top Goalscorer of the EPL | Managerial Changes |
| Most Assists | Pre-Season Friendlies |
| To Relegate/Stay up | xG (expected goals) |
| PFA Player of the Year | xA (expected assists) |
| To finish in Top 2, 4, 6, top half etc. | |
| Next Manager to Leave Post |
Season long bets are bets for the upcoming season that you can bet on even before the season begins. For instance, you may want to bet on the winner of the Premier League, or the top goalscorer. Then, these are the bet types you will be looking for. You can also look at some of the factors described in the section “Before the season starts.” These include transfers, managerial changes, and performances in pre-season friendlies.
Often you can also bet on these whilst the season is ongoing. Common for all of the bets is that they are only concluded before the season is over.
| Winner | Site | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal |
|
1.67
|
| Manchester City |
|
2.38
|
| Manchester United |
|
151
|
| Newcastle |
|
501
|
| Brighton |
|
1001
|
| Liverpool |
|
1501
|
| Tottenham |
|
1501
|
| Chelsea |
|
4501
|
Most assists: EPL Top Assists
For a bet such as ‘Most Assists,’ you would need to look at some stats from the last season. A prime example is Kevin De Bruyne. In the 2021-22 season, De Bruyne had the highest xA (expected assists) per 90 minutes played. This stat considers players who featured in more than 5 matches.
The Manchester City midfielder had an xA of 0.39 per 90 minutes played. This contrasted with his actual assists of 0.33 per 90 minutes played. In other words, during the whole season he got only 8 assists against an expected number of 9.5. That underperformance of 1.5 assists was mainly attributed to his teammates’ failure to convert chances.
Two of those teammates, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus, were transferred to other clubs ahead of this season. During the season, they had accumulated xG stats of 14.4 and 10.1, respectively. However, they managed to score only 13 and 8 goals, respectively. That translates into an underperformance of 3.5 goals that they were expected to score. For comparison, Kevin De Bruyne scored 15 goals from an xG of 6.4.
This season, De Bruyne will be providing passes to Erling Haaland, one of the most prolific strikers in the world. Last season, the newly acquired Haaland had an xG of 0.83 per 90 minutes played with German club Borussia Dortmund. In reality, however, he scored 1.04 goals per 90 minutes played. All through the 2½ seasons Haaland played for Dortmund, he outperformed his xG, proving that he is a very prolific striker. Unsurprisingly, therefore, Kevin De Bruyne was the pre-season betting favourite to get the most assists.
Next Manager to Leave Post
For a bet on ‘Next Manager to Leave Post,’ consider one that you think will underperform the club board’s expectations. Things can change very fast. The most infamous example we can think of is Claudio Ranieri.
In 2016, he sensationally won the Premier League as a manager of Leicester, who were major underdogs. The following season, he was sacked by February as the Foxes neared the relegation zone. He met that fate despite having made it to the Round of 16 in the Champions League.
Full Time Result Tips
| Types of Bets | EPL Betting Tips: Important Stats and Insights |
|---|---|
| EPL Full Time Bet | Injuries & Missing Players |
| Double Chance | Form (Home & Away) |
| Full Time w. Asian Handicap | Head-2-Head |
| Form (Expected Goals) | |
| The Eye Test |
The most common type of bet on a football match is on the full-time result. This is simply a bet on whether the home team wins, or the match ends in a draw, or the away team wins.
Apart from the Full Time Bet, there are other variations of the bet such as the Double Chance. A Double Chance allows a punter to bet on two outcomes out of three; home win or draw, draw or away win, and home win or away win.
Full time bets, including handicap bets, are also quite common. An Asian Handicap can be an interesting option, if you are betting on a match that has a big favourite.
What Is Asian Handicap?
As the name suggests, the Asian Handicap originated in Asia, or more precisely, in Indonesia. The Asian Handicap limits the number of potential outcomes of bets to just two. Consider a match between a strong team, such as Manchester City, and a weaker one, such as Nottingham Forest.
A bookmaker can even out the odds by giving Manchester City a handicap of, say, 2.5 goals. This makes it possible to bet on two different outcomes, a win by either team. For Manchester City to win, the team would need a margin of at least 3 goals. Likewise, Nottingham Forest could win, if they lost by a maximum of two goals.
Thus, you can then place an EPL Asian Handicap bet on either of those two outcomes. (It is worth noting that Asian Handicap also works for other types of bets, such as goals scored, the number of yellow cards etc.) What is common to all these bet types is that you can rely more or less on the same stats.
Injuries & Missing Players
Always look out for injured or missing players, ahead of a match. If a pivotal player isn’t playing the match, it can have a significant effect on the outcome of the game.
Form of Teams Playing
This one is not exclusive to EPL betting, but is still a very important indicator of the expected outcome. Remember to look at the home team’s recent home performances. Likewise, consider the recent away performances of the away team. There can be a huge difference between how a club performs at home and away.
Last season, Brighton earned only 22 points at home. Interestingly, they got 29 points in away matches. Everton, on the other hand, couldn’t handle playing away from home. They earned only 10 points in away matches even as they got 29 points in home games.
Form Including xG
The winning form of a team is usually a good indicator. However, it can sometimes mislead us into believing that a team is better than it actually is. When it comes to match outcomes, probability is a major factor. Thus, you should take a retrospective look at the trending xG performance of the playing teams in recent games.
A team might have underperformed on their xG per game. In other words, they might have created good scoring opportunities only to miss them. Thus, they would have got a worse result than expected.
Alternatively, a team might perform better than expected, if their opponents failed to convert their own chances. In the 2021-22 season, Tottenham started out with three clean sheets against Manchester City, Wolves and Watford. In those three games Spurs opponents had an accumulated total of 3.9 xG.
That stat should have converted on average to 4 goals conceded by Tottenham in those three games combined. Spurs lost their next three games, conceding 3 goals in each match against Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Arsenal, respectively. Thus, the Spurs defence might not have been as great as indicated by the first three clean sheets.
Goals Margin
When you consider Asian Handicaps, look also at the margin of goals some top teams often win by. Some teams and managers prefer to take a more defensive approach, by defending when they already have a lead. By contrast, other teams and managers go all out to chase as big a win as possible. Such a move could backfire at times.
The Eye Test
We will cover this in more detail later, but actually watching recent games of the teams playing will help you understand much more about the teams than what the stats show.
Goalscorer Tips
| Types of Bets | EPL Betting Tips: Important Stats and Insights |
|---|---|
| First Goalscorer | xG (Expected Goals) |
| Last Goalscorer | Starts and Minutes per Match |
| Next Goalscorer (Live Betting) | Injuries |
| Certain Player to Score in Match | |
| Goal Method |
Punters usually bet on who will be the first goalscorer, the last goalscorer, the next goalscorer, and so on. A bet on ‘next goalscorer’ is only applicable during live betting. To help make informed decisions on the other bet types, you can do advance research ahead of the match.
xG (Expected Goals)
Once again, you can rely on the great statistical tool that is xG. It can show you how many scoring opportunities a certain player has had in the last couple of matches. You can also use xG to learn whether the rival team have conceded a lot of big chances lately.
Don’t be blinded by the xG stats, though, as it will not always show the full picture. Nevertheless, during the course of a full season, or over a couple of games, xG can provide great insight. Mixing xG analyses with actually watching the games is always a great idea. Doing so will help you assess a team’s chances as well as the players’ form.
Is the Player Expected to Start the Match?
Look at a player’s trend of starts and minutes played for previous matches. This is another very important stat to consider when you bet on the first or last goalscorer. Is the backup striker with the high goals per minute rate for instance getting to start the match?
Around Christmas time, you will often see managers give important players some rest. So, an important player like Mohamed Salah may be rested or be at least unlikely to start the match. In such cases, it would be a good idea to bet on someone else as the first goalscorer.
Goal Method
Next, we consider the goal method bet, wherein you can bet on the goalscoring method used by a player. The player may add to the scoreboard via a header or from a shot from outside the box.
A player this season that could be valuable to bet on for headed goals is West Ham’s new acquisition, Gianluca Scamacca. He scored only three goals from headers last season (according to Transfermarkt).
However, we can expect him to score more from headers this season. His former club, Sassuolo, had the third fewest completed crosses into the 18-yard box in the last Serie A season. (These excluded set pieces.)
Thus, he didn’t have many scoring opportunities from headers, despite his 6’4” frame. His new club West Ham on the other hand had the most headers in the Premier League last season. So, we wouldn’t be surprised if Scamacca doubled his tally of headed goals in the 2024-23 EPL season.
Miscellaneous Betting Tips
| Types of Bets | EPL Betting Tips: Important Stats and Insights |
|---|---|
| Corners | Starting Line-ups |
| Cards | Weather Conditions |
| Match Referee | |
| Head-2-Head Records (Cards) | |
| Danger of Suspension |
Betting on Corners in the EPL
Betting on corners earned in a match can be tricky. Often, the final number could depend on the type of match being played. Most often, though not always, the better playing team on the pitch will have more corners in a match.
For a winning corner betting strategy, look at the starting line-up. There are certain types of players who could help increase the number of corners. Corners typically come from shots on goal that are either saved by the keeper or deflected by a defender. Corners can also result from deflection of crosses or from tackles at the backline.
Do your own research on the starting line-ups. Weather conditions are also an important consideration in such bets. If there is rainy weather, resulting in a slippery pitch, we can expect to see more corners in a game.
How to Bet on Cards in an EPL Match
There are a number of factors you should consider before you bet on yellow cards in a match. What are the expected or confirmed Starting Line-ups? Some players are more prone to getting cards. Is there a potential match up on the pitch between a slower defender and a faster, great dribbling attacker? If so, such a match up could often lead to at least a yellow card.
Who is the Referee? Always look out for who will be the assigned match referee. Some referees are more trigger-happy than others when it comes to giving out cards. In the 2021-22 season for instance, Paul Tierney dished out 3.81 yellow cards per game and a red card almost every fifth game. By contrast, Martin Atkinson gave out 2.46 yellow cards per game and a red card every 13th game.
Is it a fierce match up? Look out for the head-2-head record of the two teams. An ongoing rivalry between two clubs can often lead to a lot of cards. Or, perhaps, there is a rivalry brewing? This might be the case for match ups between Liverpool and Manchester City this season.
I remember the early 2000’s when Manchester United and Arsenal were the two top dogs in the Premier League. The teams were involved in some fierce games with a lot of cards dished out. For instance, the Battle of Old Trafford resulted in 8 yellow cards, in addition to a sending-off for Patrick Vieira.
Are there any players in danger of suspensions? Consider a situation wherein an important match is coming up for one of the involved teams. Consider also that plenty of their players are at risk of suspension for that match. These players are less likely to take risks while tackling opponents, thereby leading to fewer yellow and red cards.
The Eye Test
Stats are a good indication of the expected outcome of a match. However, they don’t capture everything. By watching matches yourself, you can gain further insights on players and teams. When you judge an athlete, you should rely on your own eyes rather than media reports or statistics or any other thing. A media report is subjective, as it expresses the views of the author.
The author may be passing a judgement on the basis of a few games. In some instances, the author may not even have watched a game. This is not to say that watching every single game of a competition will make one an expert. However, anyone who did not watch the World cup 2018 would not fathom how Croatia reached the final. Or how much they deserved what they achieved.
Utilise your bonuses
If you have not already registered at a bookmaker’s site, please read the Best Welcome Bonuses article here at indiabetting. There are several bookmakers who offer football specific bonuses and promotions. In this segment of our EPL betting tips, we look at some of the best offers.
Parimatch: Free Bets Offer
Under this offer, a must make a single-payment deposit of ₹1000 or more within 7 days after registration. Subsequently, the player will get a free bet of ₹200. The player must use the free bet within 7 days of the date of deposit. He can place a single bet on any sports with bets odds of 1.01 to 3.0.
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Parimatch FreeBet
98 /100FreeBet worth ₹200 with minimum deposit of ₹100018+. T&Cs apply. Deposit ₹1000 in a single payment and get a ₹200 FreeBet. Reward accredited automatically to your betslip. FreeBet validity: 7 days since 1st deposit. FreeBet amount is X200. In order to use FreeBet, add events to the betslip.Min odds on qualifying Sports bet: 1.01 to 3.0. In the betslip opposite “Use FreeBet” move the slider to the right and click on “Place a Bet” button. Full T&Cs
1xBet: Advance Bet Offer
This offer is made to a user who has won bets but who has not yet received the winnings in his account. The betting site provides advance funds for the user to place bets with. The advance bets are covered by using the settled bets whose winnings have not been received.
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1xbet
97 /100120% up to ₹66,00018+. A customer is entitled to only one bonus. The minimum deposit is 200 INR. The bonus amount must be wagered 5 times in accumulator bets. At least 3 selections within the accumulator bet must have odds of 1.40 or higher. The bonus must be used within 30 days of registration. T&Cs Apply. Full T&Cs
Betway: Early Cash Out Offer
Under this offer, a punter can get an early pay-out on his bet before the bet has resulted. In other words, he can get a portion of his money back before the match is over. The amount he can cash out will be calculated on the basis of the odds quoted at the time of cash out.
Where Do I Find EPL Stats?
There are some great sources for finding the stats you need when you do your research before betting. Of course, you can use the official Premier League website, but often they do not provide you with the more sophisticated stats you seek for your analytics.
One of our preferred sites is fbref.com which provides comprehensive data. The data which is given free of charge includes information on both clubs and players. Some other great website resources for EPL data and stats include Whoscored.com and Transfermarkt.com.
EPL Live Betting Tips
In this penultimate segment of our EPL games predictions and betting tips, we reiterate some basic rules. When you engage in live betting, we would strongly encourage you to watch the match. If you are not watching a match you are betting on, it is analogous to blind betting. Depending on your preferred bet types, you can also consider the tips we have given earlier in this article.
Select the Game of Your Choice
You may have a favourite team in the EPL. Alternatively, you may be knowledgeable about the current form of players and teams. Thus, you may have the ability to predict the results of games, especially upsets. Make an informed decision while choosing a game to place your EPL best bets on.
Select the Market and EPL Odds
Choose your preferred market and see the EPL odds offered. Before you place your bet, satisfy yourself about the potential earnings on your preferred market.
EPL Betting Tips FAQs
We conclude our EPL betting tips review by answering some frequently asked questions.
Manchester City are bookmakers’ favourites to defend the title they won in the 2021-22 season.
Erling Haaland, the Manchester City striker, attracts the lowest odds as the predicted EPL top scorer of the 2024-23 season.
Asian Handicap is a bookmaker’s device that allows punters to bet on a game with an overwhelming favourite. It allows a handicap of goals to be assigned to the favourite team. If, for example, such handicap is 2.5, the team would have to win by at least three goals. If the handicapped team fails to win by 3 goals, the other team would be considered the winner.
You can win on betting on the EPL by a combination of watching games and analysing stats such as xG.
xG is the short name for expected goals, a data model used to analyse the probability of a player scoring from a given shot attempt.
